Today (Monday 1st), deputies and senators will elect who will command the Chamber and the Senate for the next two years, in a dispute that goes far beyond the interests of Congress. The result of the election could mean a blank check in the hands of President Jair Bolsonaro by handing two of his allies the head of the Legislature. Bolsonaro's interference in the campaign indicated that the practices of the old policy, with distribution of positions and funds, buried once and for all the expectation of renewal manifested in the polls in 2018.
Threatened in office by 59 impeachment requests, the president personally invested in sewing agreements and co-opting votes to seal the election of deputy Arthur Lira (Progressistas-AL) and Senator Rodrigo Pacheco (DEM-MG). For Bolsonaro, the election of Lira and Pacheco in the two Houses of Congress signifies the shielding of his mandate.
The two indicated, for example, that they are opposed to installing a Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) to investigate the government's mistakes in conducting the COVID-19 pandemic and also to the opening of the president's removal process. "I'm not going to buy a fight or look for elbow," said Lira. "We cannot trivialize the impeachment institute," said Pacheco.
The victory of the two candidates, if confirmed, also crowns Bolsonaro's agreement with Centrão political sector. The center-right group, without ideological attachments and notable for its physiologism, resurfaced in 2015 under the leadership of Eduardo Cunha (MDB-RJ), who left the presidency of the Chamber and ended up being arrested.
Bolsonaro allied himself with Centrão after clashes with Congress and the Federal Supreme Court (STF) and from the advance of investigations against his family nucleus, mainly about a “cracking” scheme in the office of the current senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Republicans) when he was a state deputy in Rio.
Remaining from Cunha's “shock troop” and defendant in Lava Jato, Lira expressed his intention to preside over the Chamber since 2018, but he never managed to consolidate himself as successor to the President of the House, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ), who launched the candidacy of deputy Baleia Rossi (MDB-SP).
With his frustrated ambition, Lira left Maia's group and is currently the leader of the Centrão, leading a supraparty bench that brings together approximately 200 of the 513 deputies. It is a group accustomed to exploring opportunities in a fragile Congress-based Executive.
Estadão revealed that the government released R$3 billion in “extra” resources, from the Ministry of Regional Development, for 250 deputies and 35 senators to allocate works to their electoral holdings. The negotiations were conducted in the office of the Minister of the Government Secretariat, Luiz Eduardo Ramos, who denies the business desk. Of the winners, most declared support for government candidates in Congress.
Rodrigo Pacheco (DEM), Simone Tebet (MDB), Major Olímpio (PSL) and Jorge Kajuru (Citizenship) are the candidates for the presidency of the House; find out how the votes for Davi Alcolumbre's succession are distributed by state and party.
Lira's main opponent, Baleia won the support of parties ranging from center-right to left, in the largest broad front built since the re-democratization. The group is seen by Planalto as the first step in an articulated movement to further erode Bolsonaro. In practice, the anti-Bolsonaro alliance may represent a rehearsal for the 2022 presidential race.
After the Congressional elections, Bolsonaro will promote a ministerial reform. On Friday, he conditioned the re-creation of the Ministries of Culture, Sport and Fisheries to the victory of his allies in the House and Senate, but on Saturday he backed down and said that these portfolios would continue as secretaries. He indicated, however, that Onyx Lorenzoni should be transferred from the Ministry of Citizenship to the General Secretariat of the Presidency. This will open a vacancy for Centrão, probably for Republicans, a party linked to the Universal Church. Citizenship is the ministry that takes care of Bolsa Família, an aid program that Bolsonaro intends to use as a passport for his candidacy for reelection in 2022.
Contemplated so far with second and third echelon positions, Centrão leaders want to leave the periphery of power and show an appetite for ministries with a billion-dollar budget. In addition to Citizenship, the Health, Regional Development and National Education Development Funds (FNDE) are on the bloc's wish list. The group also wants to recreate the Ministry of Industry and Foreign Trade.
The final stretch of the campaign has been marked by defections in the arch of allies of the candidates opposing the Planalto. Baleia lost supporters attracted by the benefits offered by the government and Simone Tebet (MDB-MS) also found herself abandoned at the last minute by her own party, which preferred to ratify her candidacy for Senate command and support Rodrigo Pacheco, the name endorsed by the Planalto, in exchange for positions on the Board of Directors.
“The game is heavy. They want to make the Senate an appendix to the Presidency. It will not be possible to get out of the problems of society without independence,” lamented Tebet, who maintained the candidacy without endorsement by the MDB. Now, the most highly rated to occupy the first vice-presidency of the Senate, if Pacheco wins, is the government leader in Congress, Eduardo Gomes (MDB-TO).
In the Chamber, even with the betrayals to Baleia, there is a chance of a second round. He formed a front that brought together broken parties for the first time since the impeachment of ex-president Dilma Rousseff. But the group started to crumble. Baleia lost votes in the DEM, PDT, PSDB and PSL. Some of Maia's former allies, who made the bid, changed sides last week.
Before, everyone attended the official residence, in a group dubbed the “midnight express” - they used to arrive late at Brasilia's evening meetings, watered with wines and spirits, where political directions are discussed. One of them, who celebrated Maia's first election to the Chamber, took place in the functional apartment he shared with Elmar Nascimento (DEM-BA). Although he lived with Maia, Elmar broke with him when he was passed over as a candidate and now works to elect Lira.
Bolsonaro's “bad guy”, by the way, was from the same group, which also included Alexandre Baldy (PP), Marcos Pereira (Republicanos-SP), Paulinho da Força (Solidariedade-SP) and Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB).
Maia's departure should make room for the conservative agenda set by Bolsonaro. On the other hand, reforms to the government's economic agenda have advanced, now they must face the disinterest of the president and the new parliamentary summit, as the lock in privatizations, which led to stampedes in the business world. Administrative reform clashes with the promised creation of ministries.
In the tributary, there are talks to revive the CPMF. The president wants to facilitate access to weapons, approve the exclusion of illegality by police. And their new allies intend to release the gaming sector. Lira sympathizes with the idea. Gambling is the flag raised by the president of Progressistas, Senator Ciro Nogueira (PI), and the DEM deserters from Bahia, Elmar Nascimento and Paulo Azi. In addition, he tends to reduce transparency in the Chamber's conduct. He has already warned that he will not give daily interviews and that he intends to dislodge the press committee from close to the plenary.
Baleia allies bet on "surprises" in House elections. The most remembered case in the House is the victory of Severino Cavalcanti (PP-PE). In 2005, he won by exploring divisions at the base of the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva government. The official PT candidate was former deputy Luiz Eduardo Greenhalgh. On the eve of the vote, he promoted a barbecue in a mansion on Lago Sul, an upscale neighborhood of Brasília. Ministers, parliamentarians, and party leaders attended the event. There were 192 deputies, from right to left. Everyone was convinced of Greenhalgh's favoritism, but the ballot boxes held the government upside. The deputies went to the party, but they would not vote for PT.
Source: Felipe Frazão e Vinícius Valfré, O Estado de S.Paulo
