The victory of Congressman Arthur Lira (Progressistas-AL) in the Chamber rescued a group of parliamentarians who had been ostracized since the fall, almost five years ago, of Eduardo Cunha, president impeached in the House. Unlike his predecessor Rodrigo Maia, who had a clear liberal agenda, Lira will not operate with a pre-established economic agenda. He has already signaled that the priority now is to leave digital on issues of immediate impact and popular appeal, such as emergency aid. The reforms to unlock the economy are for a second moment.
In the case of tax reform, the debate was even more waged. The government, deputies and senators have different proposals. The House project, which unites five taxes, was elaborated by Lira's opponent in the election, deputy Baleia Rossi, and reported by Aguinaldo Ribeiro, which can be changed. Administrative reform, in turn, is in the Constitution and Justice Commission (CCJ) and has no deadline for reaching the plenary.
The group's agenda should include projects of direct interest to its leaders, such as imprisonment after second instance conviction and changing the improbity law, and even emergency aid, pressure from the electoral bases of the Centrão parties. The “money in the vein of the people”, as translated by the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, guarantees popularity and votes for parish politicians.
The lack of a defined agenda means that each project is negotiated. The shock troop of the new mayor admits that the Planalto Palace's offensive to change votes in Congressional elections earlier this month, with the release of funds and positions, only met this vote. From now on, each of the projects of interest to the Executive will require a similar effort.
Estadão followed a conversation last week, in which Lira was present, in which an interlocutor joked about this Centrão's fault saying that the government did not buy, just rented votes in the Congressional election. And rentals need to be renewed from time to time. Everyone laughed. It is also with the same irony that the music of General Augusto Heleno (Institutional Security Office), who hummed on Bolsonaro's stage in 2018, treated “if you scream catches Centrão, you won't be my brother”. One of those present in the conversation observed by Estadão mocked saying that now they are the “Centrão of Heleno's music.”
In the first week, Lira and Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco announced their intention to play together. They sought to establish, in public, a common accord with the Planalto. Right away, however, they opposed Bolsonaro and framed the National Health Surveillance Agency (Anvisa) to expedite the approval of vaccines against COVID-19. In response, the agency's president, Antonio Barra Torres, accused Congressman Ricardo Barros (PP-PR), who spearheaded the proposal, of acting as a lobbyist for a company that manufactures the immunizer. They also approved the autonomy of the Central Bank, which is in the interest of the financial system, which deprives the president of the prerogative to dismiss the head of the institution.
The battle at hand is the return of emergency aid. Congress wants to give four more installments, starting in March. Aware that he will suffer a new defeat, Bolsonaro had to abandon the speech that “the country is almost broken” and tries to convince his shock troops to cut expenses in exchange.
One of the most urgent objectives is to approve the 2021 Budget, pending political disputes since last year. Lira put the inexperienced deputy Flávia Arruda in charge of the commission that will define the fate of billions of reais, the wife of ex-governor José Roberto Arruda, caught in 2009 with bribes in her sock.
With Lira and Pacheco, sector lobbies gain strength. The pressure for the House to approve the gas law even won a TV campaign. This week, the Senate should speed up the processing of a proposal that regulates casinos, bingos and jogo do bicho. The argument: the collection of taxes may strengthen the coffers of the aid program Bolsa Família.
The gaming lobby has begun to overcome resistance. Republicans, for example, linked to the Universal Church, tend to release the vote. The party has just taken over the Ministry of Citizenship, its first portfolio.
Lobbyists have already gained more access to House commissions. As soon as he took office, the Lira group changed the internal regulations and made the thematic commissions official during the pandemic, when the entrance to the House will be more restricted. The admission of these professionals has never been vetoed, but this is the first time that it has been formalized.
Circle
The new political arrangement of the Bolsonaro government installed in the decision-making center of power in Brasília a once peripheral political group, composed of the low clergy, parliamentary career ministers and party presidents who are beginning to emerge from ostracism. If he doesn't have a circle of notables before the public opinion, Lira surrounds himself with friends in the low clergy notorious for their ability to articulate away from the spotlight.
He has as political advisers Senator Ciro Nogueira), and his father, Benedito de Lira, former senator and mayor of Barra de São Miguel (AL), in addition to crisis management consultant Mario Rosa. “I see that, apart from politicians, the person who most influences him is Mario Rosa,” says Marcelo Ramos, the House's first vice president.
The strength of the party chiefs resurfaces with Lira, but the cards are also in the hands of a group with no national expression and operating behind the scenes of power. The most closed group includes André Fufuca (Progressistas-MA), Elmar Nascimento (DEM-BA), Wellington Roberto (PL-PB), João Carlos Bacelar (PL-BA), Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), Celina Leão (Progressistas -DF), Celso Sabino (PSDB-AP), Claudio Cajado (Progressistas-BA), Soraya Santos (PL-RJ) Cacá Leão (Progressistas-BA), Dr. Luizinho (Progressistas-RJ), Luis Tibé (Avante-MG), and Margarete Coelho (Progressistas-PI).
The beginning of the administration of Arthur Lira in front of the Chamber, with loose approval of the autonomy of the Central Bank, pleased the government and allowed the new president of the House to signal the market. However, the predominance of an environment of harmony between the Legislative and the Planalto Palace that prevails in the eviction process of Rodrigo Maia's group of power and in the beginning of legislative work should be viewed with caution, in the evaluation of analysts.
Source: Felipe Frazão e Vinicius Valfré - O Estado de S. Paulo.
