The study models potential returns for the state based on a range of different gaming expansion scenarios. For sports betting, Spectrum examined a number of scenarios, providing modelling for the size market within three to five years post-implementation.
This revealed that should New York maintain its status quo, only permitting in-person betting at its commercial and tribal casinos, it can expect revenue of between US$66m and US$93m in annual revenue. This in turn would generate returns through taxation of between US$4m and US$5m.
A limited expansion, in which in-person wagering remains the only legal option, but off-track betting and video lottery terminals are allowed offer betting would have a notable impact. Revenue for the market at maturity would rise to between US$212m and US$296m, with tax take increasing to between US$19m and US$27m.
The potential returns grow significantly once digital betting is factored in, rising to between US$816m and US$1.14bn. Spectrum estimated that this would be the same whether statewide mobile wagering was allowed for only the commercial casinos, or for tribal operators.
However, the report does not model the framework for mobile betting supported by New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. He is promoting a model in which one or more providers would be selected through a request for proposal, similar to the New Hampshire approach, which has seen DraftKings become the state’s exclusive sportsbook provider.
Spectrum also considered the legalization of online poker, casino and lottery games in New York. This, it said, could generate up to US$1.1bn in revenue at maturity.
Poker would be the lowest contributor, at US$60m, followed by US$299m from online lottery. Online casino would provide the vast majority of that US$1.1bn figure, at US$750m.
However, legalizing igaming for commercial casinos would in turn allow tribal operators to enter the market – this would mean that around US$730m of the US$1.1bn is taxable. This suggests the returns to the state through taxation would come to US$73m.
Source: iGB North America
