Far from being illegal since 2018, the sector is still awaiting regulation in Brazil. The expectation is July. But gambling sites already move billions of reais a year in the country thanks to sporting events that take place every day and that are now followed by fans in addition to the clubs involved. Like Campinense x Bahia. In addition to the goals, the duel drew attention due to the high volume of bets. And they expose a controversial strategy that gains momentum in the market - with speculative logic similar to that seen in the stock market.
When bookmakers opened the hunch for this game, the eyes of some gamblers grew. At Bet365, one of the main ones, the quote (or odd) for Bahia's victory reached 1.57 for each real (local currency) bet. Already that the game would end with more than two goals was 2.16. Numbers considered high (or deregulated) due to the favoritism of Bahian. After all, the higher the probability of a result, the more bets it receives. Therefore, this variable tends to fall to the bank to pay less and, thus, to avoid loss of money.
To get along, some gamblers take advantage of cash out. The service, offered by some betting houses, allows the customer to leave the bet before the end of the event with part of the profit (and, thus, escape from a turnaround in the result) or the loss (minimizing the loss that he would have at the end of the match).
In large groups guided by tipsters (people who charge for tips), they invest heavily in the unregulated odds so that they fall (which is due to an adjustment made by the house itself). When the correction is made, they are reimbursed by the site at a profit. Thus, they can close the bet before the end of the game (cash out) with more money.
“This is a maneuver by the professional gambler. One who understands the market and wants to make money from it. It's like in the stock market. He has an idea of the values. He creates his personal odd, compares with that of the betting site. And, if he identifies an undervalued one, he makes a bet hoping that it will appreciate in order to seek profit,” comments Ângelo Alberoni, country manager for Brazil at Betmotion.
In general, the bookmakers perceive this movement in seconds and close the market for that match. When it is reopened, the quotations are already regulated. In Campinense x Bahia, this did not occur. The volume of money in the Bahians' victory and in more than two goals was enormous, which led Bet365, for example, to suspend the bets - sought, the company did not return contacts. The measure prevents cash out from being made, leading bettors to make their hunch until the end of the game. It was this suspension that caused all the uproar on Tuesday. As much as the 7 to 1.
Algorithm and statistics
The episode shows how the market has grown to the point where bettors themselves discover controversial shortcuts. And it sheds light on how the odds are calculated. What makes a website say that the probability of one result occurring is greater than that of another? Behind this, a cog involves algorithms, statistics, and specialized professionals.
“Odds are calculated using mathematical modeling. It involves a statistical database that reflects probabilities. Then, specialized professionals add external elements to the calculation, such as, for example, the forecast of rain at the time of the event or players with possible injury; and internal elements, related to the risk of the operation of the house,” says Hans Schleier, marketing director at Casa de Apostas. “If there is an imbalance between the odds generated by the specialists, the system automatically interferes to resume the balance between the results,” explains the executive.
The data is extracted from the teams' previous games. Among the main ones, there are goals scored and conceded, frequency of draws, performance at home and as a visitor, in addition to the retrospect against the opponent of the next game. Usually, this service is contracted from companies specialized in statistics. Professionals who add external factors to this analysis (such as, for example, the absence of a team's top scorer) are known as traders. Its function is to polish that quote precisely to prevent the algorithms from generating unregulated odds.
It was this process that led, in January, some sites to pay 5.50 for each real invested in Vasco's victory over Bragantino, for the Brazilian Championship. The high number opened up the zebra condition of the Rio de Janeiro’s club, which generated the ire of fans less used to the betting market. But the result of the game justified the analysis: 4 to 1 for São Paulo.
“In this sense, you ignore the shirt. Odds are constructed on the basis of data. If you looked at the retrospect of the two teams at the moment, Vasco would never be a favorite,” says Alberoni, from Betmotion. “I'm a Vasco fan, but I would never bet on my team in that game.”
Source: Rafael Oliveira - O Globo
