The report, which primarily focuses on the outlook for Sands China and its parent Las Vegas Sands as key markets recover from the global COVID-19 pandemic, takes a deep dive into Macau’s own short-term future, which includes an anticipated 144% year-on-year increase in GGR in 2021 based on easing border restrictions with mainland China.
While that improvement still leaves the SAR at only around 50% of pre-pandemic (2019) levels, analysts Vitaly Umansky, Kelsey Zhu and Louis Li estimate a recovery to 89% of 2019 GGR in 2022 with mass GGR up more than 100%.
The analysts also suggest Macau’s shift towards a mass-dominated market will benefit Sands China over other operators. Sands contributed 25% of Macau GGR pre-COVID, including 30% of mass.
“Sands China will continue to be the mass market and non-gaming leader in Macau. With the upscaling and expansion of the Macau properties, we believe Sands China will maintain its market leading position in Macau with over 1/3 of Mass GGR and deliver +6% EBITDA CAGR (inclusive of the 20-21E downturn) from 2019 to 2025,” the analysts wrote.
“While concession uncertainty remains a key perceived risk factor, we firmly expect Sands to be renewed along with the other five Macau operators,” they added.
Sands China operates The Venetian Macao, The Londoner Macao, The Parisian Macao, Sands Macao and The Plaza Macao.
Source: GMB / Inside Asian Gaming
