Canadian sports betting market could generate USD25 billion a year

Co-authored by Eric Ramsey, Dustin Gouker, and Robyn McNeil for the Play Network of sites, which includes PlayCanada, "Legal Sports Betting in Canada: A preliminary analysis of the prospects of single-game wagering" explores the nuances of a market that could begin to launch before the end of 2021.

Once mature, the Canadian market "could generate billions of dollars of gross proceeds and hundreds of millions in taxes and fees annually," Ramsey wrote.

"Like the U.S., the Canadian market will be decentralized, leaving each province and territory to adopt legal sports betting and then create their own regulatory frameworks," said Gouker, lead analyst for the Play Network and PlayCanada.com.

"Because of that decentralization, many questions remain about what the Canadian market will look like once it has been built out. It is safe to say that at the moment sportsbooks view Canada as one of the largest single remaining opportunities in North America," Gouker added.

Earlier this year, parliament voted to lift the federal ban on single-game wagering, which dated back to the 1960s. Like in the U.S., where a Supreme Court ruling in 2018 paved the way for states to legalize sports betting individually, the Canadian Parliament opened the door for territories and provinces to regulate single-event sports betting on their own.

But because the majority of U.S. states have since legalized and regulated sports betting, and Canada had already long been home to a thriving "gray market" of offshore sportsbooks, it is possible to project where the Canadian market is headed, Ramsey argues.

Some of what can be expected by the third full year:

• The entire Canadian market could generate as much as USD25 billion in wagering annually, more than 80% of which would come through online sportsbook operators.
• Those bets would mean more than USD2 billion operator revenue, and depending on regulatory structures, between USD200 million and USD400 million in annual tax revenue.
• Ontario would be the most prized Canadian market, with a potential to generate USD11.1 billion in wagering and more than USD800 million in operator revenue annually. That would make it one of the largest markets in North America.

Even if every province adopts single-game wagering, the regulators in each will have to answer important questions about how to structure the market. That includes whether to create an open market, where numerous sportsbooks can openly compete with one another, similar to Nevada and New Jersey. Or regulators could adopt a closed model, where the province limits the number of operators in return for a revenue sharing agreement that more directly benefits the government.

Source: GMB