Although unregulated in Brazil, bookmakers are becoming increasingly popular among Brazilians. Even though it was mostly aimed at sports betting, the presidential race between Lula and Bolsonaro aroused the interest of several bettors.
These metrics are called odds, which are nothing more than the evaluation of bookmakers and the market in relation to the probability of a given event happening.
Ricardo Bianco Rosada, CMO of galera.bet, official sponsor of the Brazilian Men's and Women's Championship, Corinthians and CBB (Brazilian Basketball Confederation), explains that the basis for calculation in any type of bet is made in a scientific way, be it in sports, politics, or any other market.
"It is important to remember that the odds are dynamic and updated in real time. In the case of political betting in Brazil, electoral surveys – which follow the scientific methodology – are, in general, the main indicator of probability. However, in some cases, it is more difficult to estimate. In the United States presidential elections, for example, the voting system is different, with different weight for each state. This means that a single state can decide the course of an election," he explains.
Rosada points out that especially in Brazil, the habit of betting on elections is new and almost did not exist in 2018, for example. According to him, this consolidation comes some time in other countries, but the boom occurred in the 2016 US election, becoming a major milestone in history, and also with the Brexit vote in the UK breaking records in the volume of bets made, moving tens of millions of dollars.
"The two cases drew attention especially because they had somewhat unexpected results. In 2016, the odds changed dramatically after the Florida calculation, which had a scenario considered surprising and decisive in the outcome of elections across the country. In all, the presidential race in the United States moved more than $200 million in betting, and the result surprised a lot of people," he said.
For all major platforms, there are large odds supply companies, one of the best known and largest in the world in this segment is Sportradar, which does statistical and analytical study, and subsequently sells this work to all the quotation bets in the world.
"After that, each platform does its job on top of its own beacon. Still, election polls are a strong basis for calculation, as they pull previous scenarios that don't necessarily have to do with the moment. An example: how many times in an election a left-wing government against a right-wing government has reached an election month with X percent approval and rejection. There is also the balance for each betting house, which is nothing more than the law of supply and demand," adds Daniel Trajano, commercial director of Esportes da Sorte, which has in its portfolio athletes such as Matheus Cunha, the Brazilian national team and Atletico Madrid, João Gomes, flamengo, and influencers known as Pedro Scooby and Nego do Borel.
In the presidential election of the first round, the bookmakers paid, on average, odd of 1.47 for Lula and 2.50 for Jair Bolsonaro. Even because he was behind, the flow of bets on the current President of the Republic, Jair Bolsonaro, was greater, precisely because many bettors trusted to win more in a possible upset.
"The odds work just like traditional sports betting: the favourites end up with the lowest odds. This indicates that there is a greater propensity for this fact to happen. That's why we see, in the current scenario, some pretty high quotes. They're about so-called zebras. These quotes are generated from a series of analyses of providers specialized in betting, considering all the ambience throughout the election period," adds Hans Schleier, marketing director of Casa de Apostas, a company that is one of the main sports advertisers of Bandeirantes group and master sponsor of Bahia.
Now for the second round, the balance remains maintained between the two candidates: in galera.bet, the odd is 1.35 for Lula and 2.95 for Jair Bolsonaro. In Esportes da Sorte, the odd is 1.33 for Lula and 3.05 for Jair Bolsonaro. And in Casa de Apostas, the odd is 1.24 for Lula and 2.50 for Jair Bolsonaro.
"Odds reflect a probability calculation and act as a kind of multiplier of the stake. This means that if a player makes a bet of, for example, 10 reais in an event with odds of 2.5, he will receive the stake multiplied by the odds in case of victory. In this example, it would be 10 reais times odds of 2.5, totaling a payment of 25 reais. In summary: the higher the odds, the lower the chances calculated for that event to happen, and therefore the higher the payout," closes Ricardo Bianco Rosada, from galera.bet.
Source: GMB
