Betfair, a specialist in sports odds analysis, evaluated the chances of qualifying Brazilian clubs for the round of 16. To open the third date of the zone group and still remember the re-edition of the 2012 final, when Corinthians won its first title in the competition, Betfair created a special Super Quotation for last night’s game against Boca Juniors. For the gambler who scored Corinthians 2-0, as happened in the 2012 final, Betfair paid R$10.00 for each real wagered by the user. The quote was very successful for the players as yesterday's score was the same as that of that historic match.
For the classification to the round of 16, the ‘Timão’ appeared before yesterday's result in second place, just behind Boca (43%), with a 41% chance of advancing.
With the best results in the competition, Palmeiras and Flamengo lead their respective groups. Playing away from home, ‘Verdão’ faces Emelec (EQU), third in the group, this Wednesday (27), and has a 50% chance of winning the match and maintaining 100% of success. To qualify for the round of 16, Betfair points out that Palmeiras has a 100% chance of advancing.
Flamengo goes to Chile to face Universidad Católica (CHI). The match shows that Mengo's odds of beating the Chilean club are 56% according to Betfair's analysis. There are 83% chances that Flamengo will finish first in group H.
Mineiro and Paranaense in the fight; Braga should pass as second
Red Bull Bragantino and Athletico Paranaense appear with one win, one draw and one defeat each. Seeking to dream bigger in the season after winning the Brazilian and the Copa do Brasil in 2021, the Atlético Mineiro team faced Independiente Del Valle (EQU), in Guayaquil, and only drew. To qualify for the next phase, Betfair pointed to the ‘Galo’ with a 46% chance before the 1 x 1 against Independiente.
Athletico Paranaense went to Paraguay to face Libertad and ended up losing by 1 x 0. Before the result, Betfair pointed out that the Paraná club had only a 28% chance of winning in Paraguay and that its classification to the next phase, had a 45% chance of happening, before the stumble against the Paraguayan team.
The Bragança Paulista team appears in second place in the group and faced Estudiantes (ARG), four times Libertadores champion. For this Tuesday's clash, the favoritism was in the hands of the Argentine club, - they were 43%, against 30% of chances of the Brazilian team to win the match. And that was confirmed with the defeat by 2 x 0. For the classification, Betfair point out that RB Braga appears in second place in the group with 30% of passing the stage, behind Estudiantes, who had 40%.
Time to win
The Brazilian teams that face the most challenges are those that debut in their first Libertadores. América Mineiro is in the last position of group D, being a direct opponent of its rival from the state of Minas, Atlético Mineiro. ‘Coelho’ will receive Tolima this Wednesday (27), and appears with a 54% chance of beating the Colombians. To pass the stage, América is in third place in the group with a 13% chance, behind the favorite, Atlético, with 46% and Independiente Del Valle, who has 32%.
The representative of the Brazilian northeast, Fortaleza, is in the bottom of group F with two defeats in its first participation in Libertadores. However, this Wednesday's match against Alianza Lima (PER) at Castelão, shows that the club has a 71% chance of winning the opponent. As for the classification, Betfair's numbers are not encouraging for Tricolor, the club appears in third place with only 7% of chances of classification, behind favorites River Plate (ARG), with 48% and Colo-Colo (CHI) with 44%.
Favorites to Libertadores top scorer
In the ranking for top scorer in the main competition on the continent, Palmeiras striker Rafael Navarro, who scored a hat-trick against Independiente Petrolero and scored six goals in just two matches, appears with a 43% chance of finishing the Copa Libertadores as top scorer. Then comes Gabigol, who scored a goal in the competition and was the tournament's top scorer for Flamengo in 2019 and 2021, with 10%. The idol of Atletico, Hulk, who has not yet scored, appears closing the podium with an 8% chance. A new assessment of the artillery is expected at the end of the round, since yesterday, at the Corinthians Arena, Maycon scored the 2 goals of the match.
Source: GMB
