Source: https://historyofsoccer.info
Source: https://historyofsoccer.info
It feels strange that not only will the Bundesliga fixtures be announced before the world cup begins, but all domestic leagues will start - then stop - then start again. But, we’re over it now, and it’s time to start getting slowly excited for the start of the tournament.
Who are the outright favourites?
It depends where you look, but Brazil are currently the favourite at many places, being around 5/1. They have a rich history of winning the competition, mixed with an undeniable flair with the likes of Neymar, but it’s nevertheless not necessary the favourite to win among many fans.
France is a close second when it comes to the outright odds, ranging between 5/1 and 6/1. This is perhaps the favourite to win among many European fans, who get to enjoy the likes of Kante and Benzema on a weekly basis. In fact, it could Benzema alone - who will undoubtedly be a ballon d'or candidate - could be enough to persuade that France are favourites this year.
Perhaps controversially, England is the third favourite at not just UK platforms, but even US websites too. On the one hand, this is perhaps due to the demand behind British punters who like to back their own country, but it could also be because of their strong Euros performance that landed them in second place - narrowly missing out on penalties, plus many in-form personnel, such as Kane and Alexander-Arnold.
Spain and Argentina are roughly joint-favourites after this, coming in at around 8/1. Perhaps surprisingly, because Argentina are on a 32 unbeaten streak and have been playing immensely recently. This could be the “underdog” that never was an actual underdog.
Which of the favourites has the hardest group?
Of the favourites mentioned above, it is Spain who arguably have the most difficult group - facing Costa Rica, Germany, and Japan. Given that Germany walked to a victory over Italy recently, it will be a big task for Spain to even win the group.
The remaining favourites have similarly difficult groups. On paper, England’s group doesn’t look too difficult, but a heated local derby against Wales is going to be a bigger challenge than on paper it would suggest, whilst the same goes for the US - an upcoming friendly rival who the US would be eager to beat. Plus, Iran is an underrated team, too.
France perhaps the easiest group, against Australia, Denmark, and Tunisia - making them firm favourites to win the group. Brazil and Argentina have similarly difficult groups.
Underdogs to keep an eye on
Some of the teams just outside of the list of favourites include Germany, Belgium, Croatia, Netherlands, and Portugal. Germany is one team that should perhaps be in the list of favourites, who have been on form recently with a lot of their world-class talent unwilling to leave their prime - but it doesn’t change the fact that their odds are around 11/1 - plus they have a difficult group.
Portugal is a team that is always on the radar when it comes to causing an upset. At 12/1, the Ronaldo factor could be too strong, given his insatiable desire to get his hands on a world cup trophy. A Ronaldo-Messi showdown would be the ultimate way to wind down their careers, too.
Belgium are perhaps the most underachieving international team in recent years. Always given a “this is the year” that their incredible stars will perform, but this is the first competition in which their odds do not reflect this optimism. With the likes of Lukaku, KDB, Hazard, and one of the best goalkeepers in the world, on paper they should come top of their group, which includes Canada, Morocco, and Croatia.
However, Croatia’s performances in recent competitions has impressed, with Rakitic and Modric running things comfortably in midfield. This makes for an interesting group, in which either team could come top - whilst Canada will be hoping to cause an upset in at least one of the two fixtures.
Final Word
This year’s world cup, for all its controversy, is shaping up to be an open race. There is always a top favourite that never makes it past the group stage, whilst a total underdog manages to make it to the quarter-finals - but no one knows who yet. It could be a matter of whether Pogba and Kante are fit enough to play - or if Ronaldo and Messi are at their best. If the Euros are anything to go by, Italy’s unbeaten run served them well heading into the tournament, which could be the same for Argentina this time around.
