Predictions for the election follow the same rules as in sports lotteries: the player invests an amount and, in case of a hit, receives an amount based on the odds calculated by the platforms. Odds are the inverse of probability, as explained by Gonçalo Costa, CEO of Odds Scanner, a company that gathers betting statistics.
“Example: if team A has a 50% chance of winning, the odd is 1/50% (one divided by 50%) = 2. Based on that, people choose how much they want to bet on each event, and if they win, receive the stake multiplied by the indicated odd,” says Costa.
The greater the probability of winning, the lower the odds. Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), for example, is pointed out as a possible winner in a bookmaker. His odds are then lower than those of his competitors. On this platform, Lula da Silva’s price is 1.40. Hypothetically, if a person bets R$200 on the ex-president's victory and gets it right, he receives R$280 — the stake multiplied by 1.40.
On the other hand, a guess of the same value in Ciro Gomes (PDT), who is seen as a candidate with a lower chance of winning, has a higher odd (29). If Gomes wins, the gambler would pocket R$ 5,800.
In Brazil, the betting industry has experienced exponential growth since 2018, when Law nº 13,756, sanctioned by the then president Michel Temer, legalized the activity in the country. However, the sector is still awaiting regulation — the law determines that this must be done within a maximum of four years, a deadline that expires on December 12.
Given the lack of regulation, companies operating in the field are currently headquartered in foreign countries.
Passions
Gonçalo Costa explains that this market is driven by the passion of gamblers. In the context of elections, the situation is no different. Therefore, it is necessary to be careful not to lose money.
“What is bad is when people start to bet irrationally and lose a lot of money. This is more common with a football match, as there is often a global interest, people with a great sentimentality about the club and the players, among other factors,” says Costa.
“The polarization of the political scenario can indeed generate an increase in this irrational way of betting, but the context of elections is different from that found in football – there is a smaller volume of people because it is something relevant to the local and not global population and also because they are not so many who are interested in this type of bet.”
Costa points out that it is necessary to understand how betting works to avoid falling into holes. “Once you assume that the probability of winning is not 100%, you have to be careful not to lose all your money overnight. Therefore, in this market, there is a lot of talk about bankroll management and emotional control, two fundamental pillars not only to not lose money too quickly, but also to avoid losing it in the long term,” he points out.
“The big key here is managing money well. Know how much you are willing to lose and not go beyond the stipulated amount. Another tip is to bet a small percentage of your bankroll (the total money you set aside for betting) on each guess, as this gives you room to lose without actually going to zero.”
Favorites
Former President Lula leads in all bookmakers. According to Live Tracker, a tool that analyzes the probability of victory for each candidate, the leader of the PT party has a 71.43% chance of winning. In second place is Jair Bolsonaro (PL), with 26.67%, followed by Simone Tebet (MDB), with 4.76% and Ciro Gomes, 2%.
To arrive at this index, the platform takes into account the odds of different sites, polls of voting intentions, as well as news and competitor histories.
Source: Metropóles
