This report is part of VIXIO GamblingCompliance’s Outlook series, which provides subscribers with forward-looking insights, data analysis and consolidated research and key segments of the global gambling industry. The new edition includes a five-page feature on what VIXIO specialits are watching out for sports betting implementation in Brazil.
After years of delays, even the weariest of Brazil marketwatchers are now confident that the Lula government is ready to regulate. Reasons for the sudden urgency include the need for new tax revenue to offset upcoming changes to federal income tax thresholds, as well as high-profile betting-related integrity scandals in the most sacred of Brazilian institutions – football.
A best-case scenario would be the publication of a presidential emergency measure on sports betting in late March or April, kicking off a frenetic 120-day period where the measure would be subject to review and potential amendment in Congress
Here are some of the key things to watch-out for in the weeks/months ahead
The ‘Medida Provisória’:
The implementation of the sports-betting law is set to involve the adoption of formal legal amendments in the form of a so-called “Medida Provisória” (MP), an emergency measure that must be approved by Congress. The most immediate question is what exactly Brazil will propose in the MP.
This will give the clearest indication to date of how the regulatory regime will take shape. The MP could – and likely will – be amended in committee or on the floor of either house, so the legislation could take on a dramatically different shape by the time it is returned to the President’s desk after its evaluation by Congress.
Lobbying Battle Royale:
The MP process opens up a whole range of possibilities in terms of legislative changes and promises to be a source of frenetic lobbying activity from various stakeholders. Among other efforts, it's likely that casino, bingo and other gaming interests will attempt to attach much wider gambling legislation to the sports-betting MP, in order to fully open up Brazil’s gambling market... although such a move risks stirring opposition from more conservative and religious groups in Congress who are generally opposed to gambling.
Barriers to Entry:
Two of the most obvious and fundamental questions are how many sports-betting licences will be available, and how much those licences will cost. A draft decree prepared by finance ministry officials and leaked last year would have required an upfront fee of R$22m (approx. US$4.2m), although recent reports suggest this could rise to R$30m...
Offshore Online Casino:
Would operators applying for online sports-betting licences be required to cease any unregulated casino or bingo activities in Brazil as a condition of licensure?
Transitional Period:
As with any lucrative grey market on the cusp of regulation, operators will pay close attention to the proposed transitional provisions in the forthcoming MP or other regulatory decrees. The draft decree of 2022 already gives us some clues about how this potentially may shape up...
For more detail about each of these topics (and other key policy points our analysts are watching elsewhere in LatAm), VIXIO GamblingCompliance subscribers can now access its new Latin America Online Outlook report here.
Source: GMB
