Although the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) has created rules to prohibit betting on the 2024 municipal elections in Brazil, the foreign company Polymarket, which specializes in statistical predictions in politics, has launched bets on the race for Brazilian mayors.
Betting sites operating in Brazil had been offering bets on the municipal elections, but a TSE resolution was approved by the Court's Plenary in mid-September, going against the global market, where the practice is quite common.
Polymarket, which offers a series of different betting pools, from science to cryptocurrencies and pop culture, ended up filling this gap by not operating in Brazil, but began accepting bets for the elections in Brazil, only in cryptocurrencies.
Post-Marçal
After the first round in São Paulo and with the defeat of Pablo Marçal, a sensation in this election, the chance of Mayor Ricardo Nunes (MDB) being reelected soared: 84.5%, predicts Polymarket. The probability of Boulos (Psol) winning is 14%.
Polymarket calculates the candidates' chances of victory according to the volume of bets each one receives and Nunes has been leading since September.
Porto Alegre
Mayor Sebastião Melo (MDB) has a 95.5% chance of being reelected, according to Polymarket. Maria do Rosário (PT) has only a 4.5% chance.
Source: GMB
