In Rio’s league, Unidos do Viradouro is the top bet to shout "champion." Meanwhile, in São Paulo, there's a three-way tie between Mancha Verde, Mocidade Alegre, and Império de Casa Verde.
As specialists in probability analysis, the betting house will also take to the streets to showcase all the curiosities surrounding "The Greatest Show on Earth" in the Rio-SP axis.
Rio de Janeiro: Viradouro is the favorite, high chances for Neymar at Sapucaí
Rio de Janeiro was the first state in Brazil to hold a carnival celebration. The first records date back to 1855, but it wasn't until 1932 that the Rio carnival officially began. In the city known as the "birthplace of samba," Portela (22 titles), Mangueira (20), and Beija-Flor (14) are the biggest winners in the entire history of the Rio carnival.
According to Betfair's analysis, among the schools parading on Sunday (11) and Monday (12), the favorite to win the 2024 edition is Unidos de Viradouro, with a 17% chance. Imperatriz Leopoldinense and Mangueira are tied for second place with 14%, and Beija-Flor de Nilópolis is in third with 10%. See below for the complete ranking:
Neymar at Sapucaí?
Neymar has a 76% chance of being in one of the VIP boxes at the Rio de Janeiro Carnival. This is an analysis from Betfair, one of the world's largest betting houses specializing in probabilities.
The Brazilian National Team forward and current Al-Hilal player is injured and undergoing treatment in Brazil. In previous editions, the athlete participated in three Rio de Janeiro carnival parades.
São Paulo: Three favorites
Fourteen schools will parade through the Sambadrome at Anhembi on Friday (9) and Saturday (10) vying for the 2024 Carnival champion trophy. Five schools from the Special Group have yet to win titles (Acadêmicos do Tucuruvi, Tom Maior, Independente Tricolor, Dragões da Real, and Barroca Zona Sul).
Among the champions, Vai-Vai leads the list with the most victories, with 15 trophies, followed by Mocidade Alegre and Nenê de Vila Matilde, both with 11. Camisa Verde e Branco (9) and Rosas de Ouro (7) complete the list of schools with the most titles.
According to Betfair, Mancha Verde, Mocidade Alegre, and Império de Casa Verde are the favorites to win the title in São Paulo, each with a 15% chance. Camisa Verde e Branco (9%), Acadêmicos do Tatuapé (8%), Vai-Vai, and Dragões da Real (7%) are the other schools with the highest chances of winning.
Will it rain during the parades in Rio and São Paulo?
Betfair has also calculated the probabilities of rain during the parades taking place between Friday (9) and Monday (11). According to analysts, there is a 60% chance of rain in São Paulo during the parades. In the Marvelous City, however, there will be only a 15% chance of rain, with an 85% probability of good weather during the parade nights.
Betfair utilizes the expertise of traders and analysts to determine the mathematical chances of success. On the platform of the betting house, it's possible to bet on various events such as the reality show Big Brother, sports championships worldwide, entertainment events like the Oscars 2024, and even political elections such as the US presidential race, which will take place at the end of the year.
Source: GMB
