At galera.bet and Odds&Scouts, the odds for Trump are 1.61, which means a US$1 bet on Trump would yield US$1.61 in case of a win. In contrast, a bet on Biden, with odds of 8.00, would yield $8 for every US$1 bet, reflecting the perception of his lower probability of victory.
Other sites, such as Esportes da Sorte, EstrelaBet, and Casa de Apostas, show similar odds, with Trump at 1.53 and Biden at 5.00. At Bet7k, the odds remain the same, suggesting a clear trend of favoritism for Trump. Only at Reals and Onabet are the odds more balanced, with Trump at 2.00 and Biden at 2.20.
This unfavorable scenario for Biden has opened space for other Democratic Party candidates. Kamala Harris, the current vice president, is seen as the main alternative if Biden withdraws his candidacy.
At EstrelaBet, Harris has odds of 4.50, while Trump leads with 1.53 and Biden follows behind with 5.00. At galera.bet and Odds&Scouts, Harris has odds of 4.00, closer to Trump at 1.61, and well ahead of Biden at 8.00.
Another name gaining prominence is Gavin Newsom, the governor of California. At Bet7k, he is already the third favorite, with odds of 8.65, behind Trump (1.64) and Biden (4.50). At galera.bet and Odds&Scouts, Newsom appears in fourth place, with odds of 10.00, behind Trump (1.61), Harris (4.00), and Biden (8.00).
In addition to Trump, Biden, Harris, and Newsom, two other names are beginning to emerge as possible candidates. Robert Kennedy Jr., nephew of President John F. Kennedy and son of Robert F. Kennedy, and Michelle Obama, former First Lady and wife of ex President Barack Obama, are also being considered in the race, reflecting the search for new leaders capable of unifying the Democratic Party and facing Trump.
Darwin Filho, CEO of Esportes da Sorte, explains that the platforms take into account electoral polls, but this is not the only factor to be considered. Among the other variables, he cites the historical proportion for the country between left and right, the results of the last 10 elections, and how many candidates started the electoral race ahead and lost in the last month of the campaign.
"All of this is part of the algorithm and the personalized work of the betting houses, making the mathematics behind the odds quite complex and intriguing. The balancing by each betting house is also considered, which is nothing more than the law of supply and demand, causing the odds to vary according to the volume spent on those options," he comments.
Source: Veja
