“While traditional electoral polls try to predict election results based on voters’ voting intentions, Betfair’s numbers bring a different perspective to prediction: who bettors believe will win (and not who they would like to win) to the point of betting their own money,” explained Rosiane Siqueira, Betfair’s public relations manager and spokesperson.
“With a very high track record of accuracy, our bettors have correctly predicted 22 of the 24 major elections around the world since 2020, including Lula’s election in Brazil in 2022. The last American presidential elections broke records: more than R$7 billion bet worldwide on Betfair. This year’s race looks to be no different. With so many twists and turns, it has everything to be another huge event in the platform’s history.”
The 2024 US elections
The presidential race officially only began this year, but in 2023 the race was already taking shape between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, before the current US president withdrew.
Between July and November 2023, the odds of Trump returning to the presidency fell from 3.75 to 2.37 - it is worth remembering that the lower the odds, the greater the probability of the result occurring, that is, his chances increased to 58%.
Biden, the current US president for the Democratic Party and favorite at the time of the opening of the market, saw his chances decrease, with the odds varying from 2.37 to 3.25 (42%). With this, the Republican Trump ended 2023 as the favorite to return to the White House.
In December 2023, Trump was declared ineligible by the Colorado Supreme Court. Even with this situation, nothing changed and his favoritism increased to 2.25, while his opponent appeared with 3.25. It was only in April 2024 that the odds began to tighten, causing a balance in the bets: 2.1 (52%) for Trump and 2.2 (48%) for Biden.
The recent episode that occurred in Pennsylvania, when Trump was shot in the ear, left the candidate with his best number in the race for the election: odds of 1.44, which is equivalent to a 69% probability of victory. Biden, at this point, has gone from 2.62 to 7.0, a 31% chance.
Trump x Kamala
A series of changes and twists in the campaign begins on July 21, when Joe Biden withdraws from the candidacy and Kamala Harris, his vice president, takes over as the Democrats' favorite candidate.
From January to July, Kamala goes from 51.0 (2%) to 2.2 (48%), even improving her position compared to Biden after the American president's negative repercussion in the debate.
Until the end of August 2024, Betfair's odds between Trump and Kamala are closer than ever: the two candidates are currently in a technical tie according to the platform's numbers.
Both the Republican and the Democrat appear with odds of 1.91, suggesting that there will be a tight presidential race, as seen in 2020.
As the election approaches, odds are expected to continue to fluctuate with each event and statement made on the campaign trail. Upcoming debates, the release of new economic data and developments in legal issues will be crucial in shaping the electoral landscape that will take place on November 5.
Betfair will continue to monitor the odds. The Betfair Newsroom will provide regular data updates for bettors and those interested in following the dynamics of the United States presidential election.
One of the largest online sports betting providers in the world, Betfair is the official sponsor of the Cruzeiro and Vasco da Gama teams. The company, founded in London in 2000, pioneered the offering of peer-to-peer betting (Betfair Exchange) and manages a full suite of sports betting, entertainment events and online gaming products for more than four million customers over the age of 18 worldwide.
Thanks to its cutting-edge technology, the platform offers a wide range of products that allow you to bet with your own odds and odds offered by other users. Betfair is licensed to operate online betting and other games in 19 countries, including Spain, Italy, Malta and Great Britain.
Source: GMB
