Recently, the Brazilian Finance Ministry’s SPA published an initial list of online gambling companies authorized to operate in the Brazilian market. Of the 103 applications, 14 companies received definitive approval and a further 55 companies received temporary authorization, thus bringing a total of 153 brands into the regulated market.
Analyzing these players, H2 has updated its market share estimates for Brazil, providing market share estimates for the first time, using a combination of operator-reported data, affiliate traffic, web search data and web traffic analysis.
This new data suggests that by 2024 Betano has overtaken long-term market leader bet365, with the two operators claiming almost 40% of the market’s total gaming GGR between them.
Given the recently announced licensing list, H2 has also conducted analysis on 2024 market share by authorization status – analyzing all 137 original brands that hold a definitive or provisional license.
H2 estimates that the 14 operators holding a definitive license represented 17% of the total market in 2024. In contrast, operators holding provisional licensing represented 70% of the total market revenue – showing the importance of these operators obtaining definitive licenses.
Operators that did not receive a license accounted for 14% of GGR in 2024 – suggesting that the baseline for the post-regulation black market is around 15% of revenue – or around 85% of onshore pipelines.
The survival of the black market will depend on the ability of licensed operators to capture revenues from these unlicensed operators and whether these unlicensed operators continue to actively target the Brazilian market.
Revised H2 estimates imply that the offshore market will account for around 17% of GGR in 2025, falling to around 12% of market revenue in 2026 (i.e. 88% of onshore pipelines) – but this assumes that all major operators that received provisional licenses are able to obtain definitive licenses.
In 2024, H2 estimates that operators that have not received any licenses generated a GGR in the online market of BRL 3.5 billion – and that in 2025, the illegal online market in Brazil will generate a GGR of BRL 4.7 billion – or around USD 750 million.
However, with effective enforcement of regulations – specifically around payment processing – this is likely to fall, with onshore operators accounting for over 93% of the market by 2027.
The onshore online betting and gaming market is forecast to generate BRL 23 billion in 2025 – or around USD 3.7 billion – rising to BRL 36 billion in 2027 (USD 5.8 billion), assuming sensible enforcement of regulations and the absence of material adverse legislative changes.
H2 Gambling Capital
H2 Gambling Capital is a leader in market data, intelligence and consulting for the gambling industry. H2’s data is the most cited in the gambling industry, with a 20+ year track record focusing on all aspects of the industry.
H2 subscribers have access to over 150 national/state data sets, regulatory updates and market share, as well as weekly aggregated global summary data sets – with access to over 3 million data points and time series going back to 2003. For more details, visit www.h2gc.com .
Source: GMB
