With the majority of Japanese citizens – and many politicians – against the introduction of casinos, the possibility of expanding upon the three initial locations will only be reviewed after seven years.
“Quite frankly, seven years from now we’ll be lucky if any of the IRs have been operating for as much as one year,” Govertsen told iGamingBusiness.com.
“So in all likelihood the review to decide if further expansion is warranted is probably 10 years away. In that context, and as Japanese citizens get to experience IRs over a several-year period, the public opinion will probably turn positive and thus make expansion more palatable.
“That said, even in a situation where there is public support, we would not envision a wholesale expansion of gaming. Rather, we’d expect very measured expansion with one or two IRs approved at a time.”
“While the bill is far from perfect, the fact that IRs are now on course to become a reality is enough of a victory for the gaming industry,” he added.
“Our view is that we’re still more than one year away from local-level RFPs to select operators and consortiums, so there will be a lot of moving parts going forward as companies continue to do the dance with each other.
“It is too early to ascribe any value to the Japan opportunity to the gaming equities, as not only do we not know who will end up with a license – it’s possible that we might only see one international operator receive a license. We also don’t know what the economics will look like in any joint venture.”
“Japan will be a very large gaming market as measured by GGR and, on an overnight basis, is likely to be the second largest in Asia behind Macau, but the vast majority of the GGR generated in Japan will be from locals given the sheer population size and wealth,” Govertsen concluded.
Source: GMB / iGaming Business
