At the time, Bolsonaro and Alckmin appeared in the same positions. Lula, who was convicted of corruption and money laundering in the case of the Guarujá triplex apartment, came in fourth, followed by Ciro Gomes (PDT), former Supreme Court President Joaquim Barbosa (PSB) and even former PT president Dilma Rousseff.
In this mid-August update, Lula appears in sixth, also followed by Ciro, Dilma, Joaquim Barbosa and Michel Temer (MDB). It is worth remembering that the last three do not register candidacies for the presidency, but only Dilma Rousseff will run for the Senate by the state of Minas Gerais.
It should be noted that Lula's sixth place on this list is due to the fact that bettors do not trust that he will be allowed to be a candidate. The former president comfortably leads all the polls that are done in Brazil and would win if his participation is allowed.
The predictive market consists of betting sites for government or other elections, business performance and sports results. Predict It, a New Zealand site, has opened a specific page for the Brazilian elections that works as a stock exchange with real stock buying and selling.
In the list in question, the shares in the bets in favor of Haddad are being bought at US$ 0.38 and the sale leaves by US$ 0.28. In Bolsonaro, the purchase is US$ 0.34 and the sale is US$0.27.
The opposite is seen when the vote is against Haddad. The purchase rises to US$ 0.72 and the sale to US$ 0.62. Regarding Bolsonaro, the values are also close; buy at US$ 0.73 and sell at US$ 0.66. In Brazil, the market is prohibited.
LAST DATAFOLHA SURVEY
Federal Deputy Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) leads the new Datafolha poll for the 2018 elections with 22% of the voting intentions, in the scenario without former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT), ineligible for the current understanding of the File Clears Law, for being sentenced in second instance in Operation Lava Jato. The survey was released at dawn on Wednesday by Folha de Sao Paulo newspaper.
The second place is for former senator Marina Silva (Network), who has 16%. Third-placed technically tied with Ciro Gomes (PDT), with 10%, and Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) with 9%. Likely Lula's substitute in the dispute, Fernando Haddad (PT) has 4%, as well as Alvaro Dias (Podemos). Henrique Meirelles (MDB) and João Amoêdo (Novo) appear with 2% each.
Former President Lula has registered his candidacy at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), but he has been the subject of several requests for impugnation, due to File Clears Law. Luís Roberto Barroso, of the TSE, is the rapporteur of the proceedings before the Court. Now registered as a vice presidential candidate, Haddad is the likely substitute in the dispute.
In the scenario where Lula is allowed to run, the former president leads with 39% of the voting intentions, followed by Bolsonaro (19%), Marina (8%), Alckmin (6%), Ciro Alvaro (3%), Amoêdo (2%).
Source: GMB / Yahoo
